Utah State at Texas State Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 24, 2026

The story

Texas State enters 3-3 and has scored freely all season, averaging 40 points a game, most recently in a 66-27 win over Colorado State on Oct. 15. Utah State is 2-4 with an offense averaging 14.5 points a game, though it edged Washington State at home on Oct. 9. Both teams are 1-1 in the Pac-12, and Texas State's defense, allowing 32.2 points a game, is the 17th-worst scoring defense in FBS.

The angle

A 61.3-point total makes this a high-scoring setup, with Texas State at an implied 37.5 points and Utah State at an implied 24. Texas State's pass defense is the 22nd-worst in FBS and gives up 297 passing yards a game, about 90 more than the average FBS defense. With Eli Wood holding 47 percent of Utah State's catches over the last three games, the visitors' passing production flows through one receiver.

Start 'em

Eli Wood has become Utah State's passing game: he has caught 47 percent of the team's passes over his last three games, up from 31 percent before that, at 6.7 catches a game. He has played in five of Utah State's six games, averaging 15.4 points this season and 22.1 over his last three, with a season high of 23.2. Texas State is the 18th-worst defense against wide receivers in FBS, and a 61.3-point total adds room. He's listed Questionable, so check his status before kickoff. If he's active, start him, because that much of the work against a soft secondary is hard to pass up.

Javen Jacobs has handled 42 percent of Utah State's carries over his last three games, up from 36 percent earlier, at 13 carries and 95 rushing yards a game. His scoring has climbed to 17.7 points a game over his last three, against 12.6 this season and a high of 23.3. Texas State is a below-average defense against running backs, in the bottom 25 percent of FBS. He's a ceiling play, with a growing share of the carries meeting a defense that has trouble stopping backs.

Brad Jackson is Texas State's starting QB, throwing for 276 yards and running for 90 a game over his last three games on 12.7 carries. He has averaged 27 points this season and 36.8 over his last three, with a season high of 48.6, and he has scored at least 14 in each of his last five games. Utah State is an above-average defense against quarterbacks, in the top 30 percent of FBS, but an offense with an implied 37.5 points keeps his output steady. He's a safe floor, since his legs give him points even if the passing game slows.

Torrance Burgess has carried 18 times a game over his last three games for 147 rushing yards, taking 35 percent of Texas State's carries. He has averaged 21.8 points this season and 28.9 over his last three. That includes 224 yards and four touchdowns against Colorado State on Oct. 15, which The Associated Press reported were career highs in both. Utah State's run defense is above average, allowing 4.1 yards per carry, but his workload carries through that. Texas State running back Davian Jackson's 20.1 points a game over his last three trails that pace. Start Burgess, because his volume and recent form hold up in a fair matchup.

Value

Grady Brosterhous has played in five of Utah State's six games and has averaged 16.6 points over his last three, throwing for 174 yards and running 12.7 times a game. Texas State is the 24th-worst defense against quarterbacks in FBS. At $5.1M, he is projected for about 15, a strong return for the price.

Injuries and timeshares

Utah State's Eli Wood is Questionable. If he sits, Javon Robinson stands to gain, with 16 percent of the team's catches over his last three games. Texas State's Davian Jackson is Questionable and missed one of the team's last three games. If he sits, more carries could go to Torrance Burgess, who already has 35 percent over his last three. Texas State's receivers split the work: Chris Dawn and Beau Sparks each have 23 percent of the catches over the last three games.

TL;DR

Start Brad Jackson and Torrance Burgess with confidence, use Eli Wood if he's cleared, chase Javen Jacobs's ceiling, and take Brosterhous as the value.