Texas Tech at Cincinnati Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 24, 2026

The story

Texas Tech arrives at Nippert Stadium at 6-0 and ranked eighth in the AP poll, having won six straight. Cincinnati is 4-2 but has dropped two in a row, most recently a 45-42 shootout at West Virginia on Oct. 17. Both offenses have scored freely this season, Texas Tech at 37.8 points a game and Cincinnati at 35.2. That gives fantasy lineups real options on both sides.

The angle

This sets up as a high-scoring game with Texas Tech a clear favorite, which leaves room for ceilings. Cincinnati owns the 27th-worst pass defense in FBS and gives up about 80 more passing yards a game than the average FBS defense, an opening for Texas Tech's passing game. Going the other way, Texas Tech allows 2.9 yards a carry and about 60 fewer rushing yards a game than the average FBS defense, so Cincinnati's runners face the steeper climb. Both backfields are committees, and both passing games spread the ball around.

Start 'em

J'Koby Williams has handled 31 percent of Texas Tech's carries over the last three games, averaging 96 rushing yards a game in that span. With Cameron Dickey (Texas Tech) listed as out, the carries in the backfield are split between Williams and Quinten Joyner (Texas Tech). Cincinnati is a below-average defense against running backs and allows 4.1 yards a carry. Williams has averaged 19.6 points a game this season and peaked at 29.3 in the 53-25 win over Arizona State. Start him, because a dependable share of the carries meets a soft front.

Will Hammond has thrown 96 percent of Texas Tech's passes this season and has averaged 197 passing yards a game over his last three games, with a few carries each week on top of that. Cincinnati is the 29th-worst defense against quarterbacks in FBS, so the matchup is right where a starting QB wants it. Hammond has averaged 16.1 points over his last three games, up from 14.3 for the season, with a high of 21.8. Start him, since a full-time passer facing a leaky secondary is the cleanest edge on the field.

JC French is Cincinnati's entire offense. He averages 236 passing yards and 10 carries a game over his last three games. The Associated Press reported that his passing output against West Virginia was a career high, and Cincinnati Bearcats On SI named him its Offensive Player of the Game. Texas Tech is an above-average defense against quarterbacks, in the top 20 percent of FBS, so a repeat of that 38.8 is a stretch. Still, his legs keep him steady, and he has averaged 24.7 points a game this season. He is a safe floor, because his rushing volume protects him even when the passing lanes tighten.

Risky plays

Cole Tabb (Cincinnati) has caught fire, averaging 26.4 points over his last three games. His work has grown to 10.7 carries a game in that span, up from 5.7 before. Cincinnati Bearcats On SI reported that he took on his biggest role of the season against West Virginia. The backfield is still a timeshare, though: Gi'Bran Payne (Cincinnati) has 32 percent of the carries over the last three games and Tabb 30 percent. Texas Tech is also an above-average defense against running backs. Tabb is risky, because a split backfield facing a stout run defense can cap even a hot runner.

JV Gibson has caught 26 percent of Cincinnati's passes over the last three games and has averaged 13.9 points a game this season, playing in five of Cincinnati's six games. Texas Tech is normally a defense to target with receivers. The work is shared, however, with Isaiah Johnson (Cincinnati) at 22 percent of the catches over that span. Gibson has averaged 9.7 points a game over his last three games. He is risky, because his recent output is too modest to fully trust.

Value

Isaiah Johnson has caught 22 percent of Cincinnati's passes over the last three games and has averaged 10.4 points in that span, up from 8.8 for the season. French (Cincinnati) should be throwing plenty in a high-scoring game, and that volume keeps Johnson involved. At $4.8M he is projected for about 9, a fair return at his price with room to beat it.

TL;DR

Start Williams and Hammond, lean on French for a steady floor, and treat Tabb and Gibson as upside plays held back by Texas Tech's defense.