Hawai'i at Northern Illinois Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 24, 2026

The story

Hawai'i arrives in DeKalb having lost four straight, most recently 21-10 to New Mexico on Oct. 17. Northern Illinois has lost all six games, and its defense is the bigger problem: it allows 35.7 points a game, the seventh-worst scoring defense in FBS and about 12 points more than the average. For fantasy, that leaky unit is the main reason to look at Hawai'i, while Northern Illinois offers two players with real volume.

The angle

With a 47.5-point total, this sets up as a lower-scoring game where steady volume matters more than big plays. Hawai'i carries an implied 26 points to Northern Illinois's 21.5. Northern Illinois has the fifth-worst run defense in FBS, but Hawai'i's backs are not worth chasing into it: the best of them holds a thin share of the work, and his production has come and gone in an offense averaging 15.7 points a game.

Start 'em

DeAree Rogers has caught 42 percent of Northern Illinois's passes over the last three games, about nine catches a game, up from 7.3 before that. He has averaged 17.2 points a game this season and 20.2 over his last three, with a season high of 25.7. Hawai'i is a below-average defense against receivers, in the bottom 40 percent of FBS. La'Don Bryant (Northern Illinois) sits behind him at 20 percent of the catches. Rogers is a clear start because his workload holds up regardless of game flow.

Telly Johnson has handled 47 percent of Northern Illinois's carries over the last three games, about 13 a game for 90 rushing yards. He has averaged 13.9 points a game this season and 18.1 over his last three, topping out at 21.8. Hawai'i is the 27th-worst defense against running backs and the 27th-worst run defense in FBS. He's listed Questionable, so check his status before kickoff. If he plays, start him, since his heavy carry load meets a defense that gives up yards on the ground.

Risky plays

Micah Alejado is Hawai'i's starting QB, throwing for 281 yards a game over the last three games and taking a third of the team's carries in that span. Northern Illinois is the 11th-worst defense against quarterbacks and the 15th-worst pass defense in FBS. What holds him back is his range: he has averaged 12.1 points this season and 12.9 over his last three, with a season high of 17.2. He is projected for about 16. Call him risky: the matchup is inviting, but his scoring has not yet matched his workload.

Sit 'em

Tama Uiliata has played in six of Hawai'i's seven games. His scoring fell to 4.5 and 2.1 in his last two games, down from 12.6 a game in his five games before that. Northern Illinois is the 12th-worst defense against receivers, the one argument in his favor, but recent production points the other way. Fade him until he shows that output again.

DeVon Rice is in a timeshare: he has 24 percent of Hawai'i's carries over the last three games and Cam Barfield 33 percent. Rice's scoring fell to 10.6, 3.4, 2.8 and 4.1 in his last four games, down from 18.7 a game in his three games before. Northern Illinois is the ninth-worst defense against running backs, but a shrinking share of a split backfield is hard to trust. Fade.

Value

Taron Dickens has averaged 10.9 points over his last three games as Northern Illinois's starting QB, throwing for 225 yards a game and adding about eight carries a game. Hawai'i is a below-average defense against quarterbacks, in the bottom 40 percent of FBS. At $5.8M he is projected for about 9, a fair return at a low price. He is Questionable, so confirm he is active.

Injuries and timeshares

Northern Illinois's Telly Johnson and Taron Dickens are both Questionable. If Johnson sits, Elijah Porter gains, with 19 percent of the carries over his last three games. If Dickens sits, Brady Davidson would take over, with 27 passing yards a game over his last three games. Rickey Taylor is out. Hawai'i's Carson Brown is Questionable.

TL;DR

Start Rogers and a healthy Johnson, take Dickens as the cheap value if active, and treat Alejado as a risky play in a soft matchup.