Western Michigan at Toledo Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 24, 2026
Key players with CollegeFFB projections and prices, status, matchup notes and news, current when the page loads.
Week 8 · MAC game
Our breakdown
Written before kickoff; projections as of Oct. 21, 11:19 AM ET.
The story
Western Michigan has won three straight and is 3-0 in MAC play, most recently grinding out a 21-14 win at Central Michigan on Oct. 17. Toledo, 2-1 in the conference, lost at home to Buffalo on Oct. 10 before bouncing back with a road win at Eastern Michigan on Oct. 17. For fantasy, the dependable pieces here are the two starting QBs, with one Toledo receiver joining them.
The angle
This sets up as a lower-scoring game, so steady volume is worth more than chasing big plays. Toledo's run defense is above average, in the top 20 percent of FBS on a per-carry basis, and it is tougher on the run than the pass. That makes the air the softer path for Western Michigan. Both teams spread their catches around, so only a receiver with a dependable share earns a spot.
Start 'em
Broc Lowry (Western Michigan) is the starting QB and adds a real rushing role, with 10 carries and 41 rushing yards a game over his last three games to go with 172 passing yards. He has averaged 16.2 points a game this season and 20.3 over his last three, with a season high of 33.5. Toledo is about average against quarterbacks, and its stiffer run defense could push Western Michigan toward Lowry's arm. The legs and the passing volume together make him a safe floor, a weekly baseline that holds up even in a quiet game.
John Alan Richter has thrown every one of Toledo's passes over the last three games and averaged 231 passing yards in that span. His production has run 17.8 points a game this season and 11.3 over his last three, with a season high of 33.2, and he leads an offense that scores 36.3 points a game. Western Michigan is about average against quarterbacks, and its pass defense rates above average, in the top 40 percent of FBS. Neither is a matchup that should scare a passer with this workload, and he is projected for about 17. Call him a safe floor, since owning the whole passing game keeps his baseline intact.
Adjatay Dabbs has been Toledo's most productive receiver all season, averaging 15.5 points a game this season and 12.4 over his last three games, with a high of 26.1. His share of the work is split. He has 20 percent of the team's catches over the last three games and Bryson Hammer (Toledo) has 20 percent, with Dabbs hauling in 4.3 catches a game in that span. Hammer is the one to pass on, because Dabbs has averaged 12.4 points over his last three games to Hammer's 4.7. Western Michigan is above average against receivers, in the top 40 percent of FBS, which may cap his ceiling in a lower-scoring game. Start him, because his steady catch volume has held up all season and still travels in a tougher spot.
TL;DR
Lean on Lowry and Richter for dependable quarterback floors, and start Dabbs as the Toledo receiver whose steady catches survive a tougher matchup.
Line (as of Oct 22): Toledo -3.2 · Total 47.5 (context only)
Key players
CollegeFFB projections for Week 8, current when the page loads. Pts/g is the season, Last 3 his last three games. Status from RotoWire.
Western Michigan
| Player | Pos | Price | Pts/g | Last 3 | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broc Lowry | QB | $11.0M | 16.2 | 20.3 | 15.5 |
| Jalen Buckley | RB | $12.1M | 16.4 | 19.7 | 12.8 |
| Aveion Chenault | WR | $5.9M | 8.7 | 6.7 | 8.4 |
| Baylin Brooks | WR | $5.8M | 7.0 | 5.1 | 6.6 |
| Nate Levicki | TE | $4.5M | 4.6 | 8.3 | 4.6 |
| Egypt Nelson | WR | $4.6M | 4.2 | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| Adam Parks | TE | $5.6M | 4.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 |
| Cole Cabana | RB | $5.4M | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
Toledo
| Player | Pos | Price | Pts/g | Last 3 | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Alan Richter | QB | $8.8M | 17.8 | 11.3 | 17.6 |
| Adjatay Dabbs | WR | $8.5M | 15.5 | 12.4 | 14.9 |
| Connor Walendzak | RB | $5.7M | 16.6 | 13.1 | 13.3 |
| CJ Miller | RB | $11.3M | 13.7 | 18.9 | 12.2 |
| Bryson Hammer | WR | $5.7M | 10.0 | 4.7 | 10.2 |
| Terrell Crosby | WR | $5.4M | 6.2 | 7.2 | 7.1 |
| Daryl Barnett | WR | $5.5M | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.2 |
| Sam Lee | TE | $5.0M | 4.8 | 8.1 | 5.4 |
News
Jalen Buckley ran 24 times for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns in Western Michigan's 21-14 win at Central Michigan on Oct. 17, good for 27 CollegeFFB points. At $12.1M, he has delivered consistently, averaging 16.4 points a game this season, and should remain a central piece of the Western Michigan backfield when it visits Toledo on Oct. 24.
Adam Parks caught 3 passes for 55 yards and 2 touchdowns in Western Michigan's 38-7 win over Kent State on Oct. 10, scoring 20.5 CollegeFFB points in that game. Averaging 6.4 points a game this season, the $5.6M tight end could keep producing when Western Michigan visits Central Michigan on Oct. 17.
Broc Lowry threw for 257 yards and 3 touchdowns and ran 9 times for 52 yards and 1 touchdown in Western Michigan's 38-7 win over Kent State on Oct. 10, good for 33.5 CollegeFFB points. Averaging 17.7 points a game this season, Lowry could keep it going at $11.1M when Western Michigan visits Central Michigan on Oct. 17.