Air Force at Wyoming Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 23, 2026
Key players with CollegeFFB projections and prices, status, matchup notes and news, current when the page loads.
Week 8 · Mountain West game
Our breakdown
Written before kickoff; projections as of Oct. 21, 2:20 PM ET.
The story
Air Force has won four straight, most recently beating UNLV 41-31 on Oct. 17, and sits at 3-1 in Mountain West play. Wyoming has won two straight and is also 3-1 in the conference, so this meeting in Laramie on Oct. 23 carries real weight. For fantasy, Air Force plays without Liam Szarka, who is listed as out for the season, so its quarterback rushing work is still being sorted out.
The angle
This sets up as a lower-scoring game, so steady volume counts for more than the hope of a long touchdown. Wyoming is tougher against the pass than against the run. Its run defense is below average per carry, in the bottom 25 percent of FBS, and gives up 172 rushing yards a game. That points Air Force toward the ground, though its carries are spread across a committee. Air Force's run defense is about average, a neutral test for Wyoming's rushers.
Start 'em
Tyler Hughes is Wyoming's starting QB and also a big part of its run game. He has 40 percent of the team's carries over the last three games, up from 31 percent before that, and averages 17 carries, 104 rushing yards and 121 passing yards a game over that span. Air Force is about average against quarterbacks, and in a game short on scoring, that rushing volume is what carries his value. He has averaged 23.2 points over his last three games and 16 this season, with a season high of 50.1 against Northern Illinois on Oct. 17. Safe floor: his legs give him a base of points that does not rely on the passing game.
Markell Holman splits the Wyoming backfield almost evenly. He has 27 percent of the carries over the last three games, and Samuel Harris (Wyoming) has 27 percent. What separates them is the passing game: Holman has caught 22 percent of his team's passes over his last three games, up from 10 percent before that. Air Force is about average against running backs, and those catches add a cushion when points are scarce. He has averaged 11 points this season and 10 over his last three games, with a high of 20.7, and is projected for about 13. Harris draws the same carries but lacks the growing receiving role, which tips this to Holman. Start: the added catches give him a second way to produce.
Risky plays
Evan Medders (Air Force) has been one of the most dangerous runners in this game lately. He ran 18 times for 152 yards and three touchdowns against UNLV on Oct. 17. Over his last three games, he has averaged 13 carries and 99 rushing yards a game, or 21 percent of Air Force's carries, up from 11 percent before that. Air Force coach Troy Calhoun praised "The maturity, the humility, the focus and the consistency." The concern is the sample. He has played in five of Air Force's six games but had a real role in only three, two of them in the last four. He has averaged 13.4 points this season and 20.1 over his last three games, and Wyoming is about average against quarterbacks but softer against the run. Risky: the upside is real, but his workload has not held steady long enough to trust.
TL;DR
Start Hughes for his rushing floor and Holman for his growing receiving role, and treat Medders as an upside swing whose workload is still settling.
Line (as of Oct 22): Air Force -5.8 · Total 45 (context only)
Key players
CollegeFFB projections for Week 8, current when the page loads. Pts/g is the season, Last 3 his last three games. Status from RotoWire.
Air Force
| Player | Pos | Price | Pts/g | Last 3 | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Medders | QB | $5.5M | 13.4 | 20.1 | 18.9 |
| Owen Allen | RB | $7.5M | 8.6 | 13.1 | 9.2 |
| Rocco ContiQuestionable | RB | $5.8M | 8.0 | 7.3 | 6.3 |
| Matt Long | WR | $6.4M | 6.4 | 3.4 | 6.1 |
| Kemper Hodges | QB | $4.6M | 5.4 | 1.9 | 4.5 |
| Gage LaDue | RB | $5.6M | 2.8 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| Simon Kibbee | TE | $5.4M | 3.2 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| Adam Hrynciw | WR | $5.1M | 3.1 | 1.0 | 2.4 |
Wyoming
| Player | Pos | Price | Pts/g | Last 3 | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Hughes | QB | $8.2M | 16.0 | 23.2 | 17.4 |
| Markell Holman | RB | $5.9M | 11.0 | 10.0 | 12.6 |
| Samuel Harris | RB | $7.9M | 10.6 | 11.9 | 9.8 |
| Jake Wilson | TE | $6.0M | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.3 |
| Kyle Frendt | TE | $5.1M | 5.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 |
| Eric Richardson | WR | $5.7M | 4.5 | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Charlie Coenen | WR | $4.6M | 4.1 | 3.4 | 4.2 |
| Deion DeBlanc | WR | $5.4M | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
News
Evan Medders has replaced the injured Liam Szarka at quarterback for Air Force, according to The Gazette, and he ran 18 times for 152 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 18 passing yards, in Air Force's 41-31 win over UNLV on Oct. 17. That followed his first career start, against Northern Illinois on Oct. 10, which earned him National Football Foundation Player of the Week honors in Week 6. At $5.5M, he looks in line for more of the same at Wyoming on Oct. 23: he has been a steady producer, averaging 13.4 points a game this season, while attempting 1.7 passes a game in his previous 3 games.
Owen Allen ran 19 times for 96 yards and 1 touchdown in Air Force's 41-31 win over UNLV on Oct. 17, scoring 15.6 CollegeFFB points in that game. Allen could have a path to more touches, as his workload against UNLV topped the 11 carries a game he averaged over his previous 3 games, and he is producing 8.6 points a game this season. Air Force visits Wyoming on Oct. 23, with Allen priced at $7.5M.
Tyler Hughes threw for 196 yards and ran 12 times for 183 yards and 4 touchdowns in Wyoming's 41-23 win over Northern Illinois on Oct. 17, good for 50.1 CollegeFFB points. Hughes looks like a QB with a path to more touches at $8.2M, and his output keeps coming, averaging 16 points a game this season. Wyoming faces Air Force on Oct. 23.