Sacramento State at Ball State Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 24, 2026

The story

Sacramento State arrives in Muncie at 1-6, winless in four MAC games and on a five-game losing streak. Ball State is 2-5 but stopped a slide after losses to Toledo and Northwestern, winning 32-31 at Bowling Green on Oct. 17. For fantasy, the Cardinals' quarterback and backfield are where the dependable points should be.

The angle

Sacramento State allows 32.7 points a game and Ball State 37.9, about 14 more than the average FBS defense, so this sets up as a high-scoring game. Ball State is the worst defense against quarterbacks in FBS, but Jackson Sharman (Sacramento State) is not worth chasing: his production is modest, and touchdowns make up more than half his points in an offense scoring 15 a game. At tight end, nobody on Ball State has a real role, Tate Hoover included.

Start 'em

Ball State running back TJ Horton's workload is growing. He has averaged 10.3 carries a game over his last three games, up from 7 before that, and took 16 in the win at Bowling Green. Sacramento State is the 15th-worst defense against running backs in FBS. Horton has averaged 13.5 points a game this season and 16 over his last three, with a high of 22.3. Jalen Bonds (Ball State) also works in this backfield, but Horton's climbing carries put him ahead. He's a ceiling play, because a bigger workload against a soft front gives him a real path to a big day.

Keldric Luster gives Ball State a true dual threat. Over his last three games he has thrown for 209 yards a game and run 9.3 times for 41 yards a game. He has averaged 11.6 points this season and 17.1 over his last three, with a high of 28.3. Sacramento State is the eighth-worst defense against quarterbacks in FBS and the ninth-worst pass defense. Call him a ceiling play: his rushing paired with a weak pass defense gives him the most upside in this game.

Risky plays

Isaiah Ene's role has been growing in Sacramento State's committee. He has averaged 8 carries a game over his last three games, up from 6 before that, for 26 percent of the team's carries. Ball State is the eighth-worst defense against running backs in FBS. Still, his share of the work is thin, he has averaged 6 points over his last three games and 5.2 this season, and his production has come and gone in an offense scoring 15 points a game. That makes him risky, since the opening is there but the workload behind it is light.

Matt Coleman has been Sacramento State's most productive receiver, averaging 9.5 points this season and 10.9 over his last three games, with a high of 20.5. He and Onterrio Smith (Sacramento State) split the catches: Coleman has 27 percent over the last three games and Smith 21 percent. Ball State is the second-worst defense against wide receivers in FBS, but Coleman's production has come and gone in an offense scoring 15 points a game. He's risky, with an ideal matchup undercut by output that swings from week to week.

Value

Jamarion McDougle (Ball State) has seen a bump in targets lately. He has averaged 4.7 catches a game over his last three games, up from 2.3 before that, and 11.3 points over that span. He is in a timeshare: McDougle has 20 percent of the catches over the last three games and Jabari Smith (Ball State) 23 percent. Sacramento State is the ninth-worst defense against wide receivers in FBS, and at $5.4M he is projected for about 8.

Injuries and timeshares

Sacramento State's Jordan Williams is questionable. If he sits, Kyle Koontz, who has 8 percent of the team's catches over his last three games, gains work. Carson Conklin and Elijah Huddle are also questionable.

Ball State's Jabari Smith, Donovan Hamilton and Ace Cooper are questionable. Without Smith, Isaiah Thacker, at 21 percent of the catches over his last three games, stands to gain. If Hamilton sits, Smith picks up the slack.

TL;DR

Start Horton and Luster for their ceilings, take McDougle as the value, and treat Coleman and Ene as risky despite their soft matchups.