Pittsburgh at Miami Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 24, 2026

The story

Miami is 6-0 and ranked No. 1 in the AP poll, riding a six-game winning streak that most recently included a 43-35 win over Florida State on Oct. 17. Pittsburgh arrives at Hard Rock Stadium at 5-2 but has lost two straight. For fantasy, this is a Miami game: the Hurricanes' passing attack holds the safest plays, and Pittsburgh's case runs through one rising receiver.

The angle

Miami carries an implied 34 points against Pittsburgh's implied 14.5, and a Hurricanes lead could mean more running late. That is the harder path, though. Pittsburgh has the 15th-best run defense in FBS while its pass defense is about average per attempt, so Darian Mensah (Miami) and his receivers have the clearer road. Pittsburgh's offense, averaging 32.9 points a game, faces Miami's seventh-best scoring defense in FBS.

Start 'em

Cataurus Hicks has taken over a bigger piece of Pittsburgh's passing game. He has caught 25 percent of the team's passes over the last three games, up from 12 percent before that, and 4.7 catches a game, up from three. He has averaged 18.9 points over that stretch against 14 this season, with a high of 24.5. Miami is in the top 20 percent of FBS against receivers, but steady catch volume travels. Start Hicks, because his growing share holds up even in a firm matchup.

Darian Mensah (Miami) is the engine of an offense averaging 48.5 points a game. He has thrown for 297 yards a game over his last three games and has averaged 26.3 points in that span, 26.8 this season, with a high of 36.5. Pittsburgh is in the top 40 percent of FBS against quarterbacks but is tougher on the run than the pass, which pushes Miami toward his arm. He has scored at least 14 in each of his last five games. He's a safe floor, since his passing volume gives him a sturdy baseline.

Malachi Toney is Miami's top target, catching 32 percent of the team's passes over the last three games at 7.3 catches a game. He has averaged 29.8 points this season and 25.5 over his last three, with a high of 53.4. Pittsburgh is about average against receivers. Cooper Barkate (Miami) has a real role too, but Toney has outscored him 25.5 to 13.4 over the last three games. Toney is a safe floor, with at least 10 points in each of his last five games.

Elija Lofton has a modest but growing role at tight end, with 12 percent of Miami's catches over the last three games, up from 8 percent before that. He has averaged 7.9 points over that span and 7.2 this season, topping out at 14.9. Pittsburgh is in the top 40 percent of FBS against tight ends, so a huge week is unlikely. Start him, since his steady involvement in an offense putting up 48.5 points a game makes him a dependable tight end play.

Risky plays

Javian Mallory has been the more productive Miami back lately, averaging 14.2 points over his last three games and 12.7 this season, with a high of 26.2. His carries have risen to 10.7 a game, up from 6.7 before that. Still, this is a timeshare: Mark Fletcher Jr. (Miami) has 44 percent of the carries over that span and Mallory 28 percent. The bigger obstacle is Pittsburgh, the 15th-best run defense in FBS, allowing 58 rushing yards a game. He's risky, because a split backfield meets a defense that shuts down the run.

Value

Damon Ferguson Jr. has the largest share of Pittsburgh's backfield work, 35 percent of the carries over the last three games at 12.7 a game, plus two catches a game. He has averaged 10.7 points in that span and 13 this season. Miami has the third-best run defense in FBS, so the matchup is no gift. At $4.8M, though, he is projected for about 11, which makes his volume worth the price.

TL;DR

Lock in Mensah and Toney as safe floors, start Hicks and Lofton, take Ferguson as the cheap value, and treat Mallory as a risky timeshare against a stout run defense.