Ole Miss at Texas Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 24, 2026

The story

Ole Miss arrives in Austin on Oct. 24 at 5-1 and ranked seventh, having won two straight, most recently a 31-3 rout of Missouri on Oct. 17. Texas, ranked 19th, has lost two straight by three points each and sits 1-2 in SEC play. The Rebels' passing game carries the most fantasy weight, but it faces one of the country's best defenses.

The angle

Texas has the fifth-best pass defense and seventh-best run defense in FBS, allowing 17.8 points a game. Ole Miss's defense is about average, allowing 23.8 points a game. Neither offense points to an extreme game, and both teams split their backfields and spread the catches around. That favors heavy, concentrated roles over shared work, especially on the Ole Miss side.

Start 'em

Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) has been one of the most productive QBs anywhere. He averages 26.6 points a game this season and 27.5 over his last three, with a high of 33.4, and he has thrown for 251 yards a game over that stretch. Texas's fifth-best pass defense likely caps the big outcomes, but his track record against strong defenses keeps the floor intact. Start him, because his weekly output has held up regardless of opponent.

Deuce Alexander (Ole Miss) is the receiver Chambliss leans on most, with 23 percent of the team's catches over the last three games. He averages 19.9 points a game this season and 17.1 over his last three, with a 32.9-point high. A repeat of that high is unlikely against Texas, but a share of the catches this stable rarely disappears. Alexander's 17.1-point average over the last three games doubles Ole Miss receiver Caleb Cunningham's 8. Start Alexander, since his role gives him the steadiest receiving floor in this game.

Arch Manning (Texas) has added a running role that protects his floor. He has 9.3 carries a game over his last three games, up from 6.7 before that, and has thrown for 211 yards a game over that span. He averages 15.6 points a game this season and 11.8 over his last three, with a high of 26.8. Ole Miss is about average against quarterbacks. He is a safe floor, with the added carries giving him a reliable base.

Risky plays

Kewan Lacy averages 15 points a game this season with a high of 21.6, and he has played in five of Ole Miss's six games. The work has thinned: he has 33 percent of the team's carries over his last three games, down from 47 percent, while Makhi Frazier (Ole Miss) has 36 percent. Ole Miss Rebels On SI reported the team expects a limited Lacy the rest of the season after he left the Oct. 10 game against Vanderbilt early. Texas also has the seventh-best run defense in FBS. Lacy's 11.8-point average over his last three still edges Frazier's 8.1. Call him risky, with a split backfield and a stout front cutting into his upside.

Sit 'em

Horatio Fields (Ole Miss) has slipped down the pecking order. He has 8 percent of the team's catches over his last three games, down from 17 percent earlier in the season. Texas is the sixth-best defense in FBS against wide receivers. Fade him, because there is too little volume to survive this matchup.

Value

Caleb Odom (Ole Miss) has grown his role, catching 20 percent of the team's passes over the last three games, up from 15 percent before that. He has played in five of Ole Miss's six games and averages 10.1 points over his last three. Texas is the fourth-best defense against tight ends, but at $4.8M he is projected for about 9, which makes his steady catch count worth the price.

Injuries and timeshares

Texas's Hollywood Smothers and Kaliq Lockett are questionable. If Smothers sits, Raleek Brown gains the most, and he already has 31 percent of the carries over the last three games. Even with Smothers active, the backfield is a true timeshare, with Brown and Smothers each at 31 percent over that span. Ole Miss's backfield is also split, with Frazier at 36 percent and Lacy at 33.

TL;DR

Start Chambliss and Alexander despite the tough defense, lean on Manning's rushing floor, take Odom as the value, and treat both backfields with caution.