Buffalo at Ball State Breakdown: Week 11, Nov. 11, 2026
Key players with CollegeFFB projections and prices, status, matchup notes and news, current when the page loads.
Week 11 · MAC game
Our breakdown
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Key players
Week 11 projections are not published yet: players ranked by CollegeFFB points a game this season. Pts/g is the season, Last 3 his last three games. Status from RotoWire.
Buffalo
| Player | Pos | Price | Pts/g | Last 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chance Morrow | WR | $6.1M | 16.8 | 8.5 |
| Messiah Burch | RB | $6.0M | 12.2 | 18.0 |
| Jason Wright | QB | $6.8M | 9.8 | 12.4 |
| Clint Walker | TE | $5.4M | 6.8 | 9.4 |
| Terrance SheltonQuestionable | RB | $7.9M | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| Dwayne Early | WR | $4.5M | 4.3 | 6.0 |
| Nino Hill | RB | $4.6M | 3.9 | 2.9 |
| Jaylen Andrews | WR | $5.4M | 3.8 | 4.6 |
Ball State
| Player | Pos | Price | Pts/g | Last 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Horton | RB | $6.2M | 13.5 | 16.0 |
| Keldric Luster | QB | $5.9M | 11.6 | 17.1 |
| Jalen Bonds | RB | $6.5M | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| Donovan HamiltonQuestionable | WR | $5.6M | 7.9 | 6.8 |
| Jabari SmithQuestionable | WR | $5.6M | 7.3 | 10.7 |
| Jamarion McDougle | WR | $5.4M | 6.9 | 11.3 |
| Isaiah Thacker | WR | $5.4M | 6.2 | 6.7 |
| Johnny Thompson | RB | $5.0M | 3.9 | 5.6 |
Matchup notes
- Buffalo passing game: Ball State is the second-worst pass defense in FBS, adjusted for opponents (8.3 yards per pass attempt allowed, 244 passing yards a game).
- Buffalo run game: Ball State is the eighth-worst run defense in FBS, adjusted for opponents (5.4 yards per carry allowed, 202 rushing yards a game).
Yards per carry and per pass attempt allowed this season, ranked across FBS. A defense gets a note only when its opponent-adjusted rank and its SP+ rating agree.
News
Messiah Burch ran 28 times for 172 yards in Buffalo's 25-18 win over Massachusetts on Oct. 17, good for 17.2 CollegeFFB points. He should keep getting chances in the Buffalo backfield, having averaged 22 carries a game in the 3 games before that, and he has been a steady producer, averaging 12.2 points a game this season. At $6M, he looks like a useful RB option when Buffalo faces Bowling Green, which allows the 8th-most yards per carry in FBS, on Oct. 24.
Keldric Luster threw for 195 yards and 1 touchdown and ran 17 times for 125 yards and 1 more score in Ball State's 32-31 win at Bowling Green on Oct. 17, good for 28.3 CollegeFFB points in that game. Ball State hosts Sacramento State on Oct. 24, and Luster, who has averaged 13.6 points a game this season, shapes up as a reliable piece for fantasy rosters at $5.9M.
TJ Horton ran 16 times for 81 yards and 2 touchdowns and caught 1 pass for 12 yards in Ball State's 32-31 win at Bowling Green on Oct. 17, good for 22.3 CollegeFFB points. Averaging 13.5 points a game this season, Horton could continue to produce at $6.2M when Ball State hosts Sacramento State, which allows the 22nd-most yards per carry in FBS this season, on Oct. 24.
Clint Walker caught 7 passes for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns in Buffalo's 25-18 win over Massachusetts on Oct. 17, good for 23.5 CollegeFFB points. At $5.4M, the Buffalo tight end has averaged 7.9 points a game this season and looks lined up for more chances when Buffalo faces Bowling Green on Oct. 24.