USC at Wisconsin Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 24, 2026

The story

No. 16 USC comes to Camp Randall Stadium at 6-1, with two straight wins since its home loss to Oregon. Wisconsin is 4-2 and dropped a 17-7 decision at UCLA on Oct. 17, so a home Big Ten win would steady its season. For fantasy, the Badgers' stout defense shapes the USC side of the ledger, while the Wisconsin offense gets the friendlier matchups.

The angle

Neither offense's scoring points to an extreme game, so roles and matchups drive the calls. USC is tougher on the run than the pass: it is an above-average run defense but a below-average pass defense, in the bottom 30 percent of FBS and allowing 239 passing yards a game. That makes Wisconsin's passing game the softer path. The Trojans' pass catchers face Wisconsin, the third-best pass defense in FBS, which caps their ceilings.

Start 'em

Trent Mosley has played in four of USC's seven games and has produced every time he has suited up. He averages 24.1 points a game this season and 23.8 over his last three, with a high of 27 in his return at Penn State on Oct. 10. He splits the catches with Mark Bowman: Bowman has 24 percent of USC's catches over the last three games and Mosley 21 percent. Wisconsin is the third-best pass defense in FBS, so a monster week is less likely. Tanook Hines (USC) sits a step behind, averaging 14.1 over his last three to Mosley's 23.8. Mosley is a start, because his scoring has been too consistent to bench.

Colton Joseph has turned into Wisconsin's running game. He has averaged 14.7 carries and 84 rushing yards a game over his last three games, up from 8.3 carries before that, and has 43 percent of the team's carries in that stretch. He ran 18 times at UCLA on Oct. 17. USC is below average against quarterbacks, in the bottom 30 percent of FBS, and he averages 25 points over his last three with a season high of 37.9. Call Joseph a ceiling play, since that rushing volume meets a soft defense.

Jacob Harris (Wisconsin) has become a bigger part of the passing game. He has caught 24 percent of his team's passes over his last three games, up from 11 percent before that, and Jaylon Domingeaux (Wisconsin) has 33 percent over the same span. USC is a below-average defense against tight ends, in the bottom 30 percent of FBS, a spot worth attacking. Harris has averaged 13.8 points over his last three games, with a season high of 21.5. His growing role lands on one of the softer tight end matchups around, which makes Harris a ceiling play.

Risky plays

Mark Bowman has played in five of USC's seven games and has been busy when healthy. He has averaged 5 catches a game over his last three games, up from 3 a game before that, along with 14.3 points over that span and a season high of 26.3. He is listed as probable. USC Trojans On SI reported that he missed USC's last two games with a hamstring injury and that his status for Saturday remained unclear. Wisconsin is also the third-best defense against tight ends in FBS. Bowman is risky, as the role is real but the matchup and the hamstring both cloud it.

Sit 'em

Wisconsin receiver Tyrell Henry's role has dried up. He has caught 15 percent of the team's passes over his last three games, down from 41 percent earlier, and his scoring has followed. USC is below average against receivers, which is the one source of upside, but that share is too thin to trust. With the passes going elsewhere, Henry is a fade.

Value

Kayden Dixon-Wyatt has played all seven USC games and has averaged 11.6 points over his last three. With Corey Simms and Terrell Anderson both out for the season, per USC Trojans On SI, the receiver room is thinner. His share fell to 5 percent of the team's catches over his last two games, down from 18 percent, so this is a value play rather than a safe one. At $5.2M he is projected for about 12.

TL;DR

Start Mosley despite the matchup, chase Joseph's rushing and Harris's rising role against USC, and hold Bowman and Henry out until the picture clears.