Oregon at Illinois Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 24, 2026

The story

Oregon is 4-2 and steadied itself after a home loss to UCLA by beating Nebraska 17-14 on Oct. 17, but it arrives in Champaign without several key pieces. Illinois is 3-3 and won a one-point thriller at Michigan State on Oct. 10, though it will also be missing its starting QB. For fantasy, that makes this a game about which pass catchers still have secure volume.

The angle

Oregon carries an implied 29.5 points against an Illinois defense allowing 27.8 points a game, a below-average figure in the bottom 25 percent of FBS. The Illini also field the 20th-worst pass defense in FBS, which favors Oregon's receivers. Illinois sits at an implied 21 points against the 15th-best pass defense in FBS, so its passing game has less room. Neither side's scoring points to an extreme game, which leaves usage and matchups to decide it.

Start 'em

Dakorien Moore has become Oregon's top target because Evan Stewart is out. He has caught 22 percent of the team's passes over the last three games, up from 14 percent before that, at 4.7 catches a game. He has averaged 14 points a game this season and 11.8 over his last three, with a season high of 21.3. Illinois is the 20th-worst defense against wide receivers in FBS and has allowed 248 passing yards a game, a soft spot for a receiver whose share is growing. Start him, because the extra targets meet the friendliest matchup on the field.

Collin Dixon has caught 32 percent of Illinois's passes over the last three games, about 7.3 catches a game, and 37 percent across the season. He has averaged 27.2 points a game this season and 19.9 over his last three, with a season high of 45.6. Oregon is the 15th-best pass defense in FBS and the 15th-best against wide receivers, so this may not be one of his biggest weeks, especially with Katin Houser (Illinois) out. Hudson Clement (Illinois) has 22 percent of the catches, and Dixon has outscored him over the last three games, 19.9 points a game to 15.8. Start Dixon, since his volume should hold up even in a tough spot.

Risky plays

Jordon Davison (Oregon) has the workload you want from a running back, at 13.7 carries a game over the last three games. Oregon's backfield is a timeshare, though: Davison has 43 percent of the carries over that span and Dierre Hill has 41 percent, so neither runs the show. Davison has averaged 11.7 points a game this season and 7.9 over his last three, with a season high of 22. Illinois is a below-average run defense in the bottom 30 percent of FBS, which is a favorable draw. Davison has the slightly larger share of the carries, which is why he is the Oregon back featured here. Call him risky, because a near-even split caps how much of that soft matchup he can capture.

Value

Illinois running back Aidan Laughery's role has jumped. He has averaged 13.3 carries a game over his last three games, up from 7.3 before that, and holds 43 percent of Illinois's carries with Ca'Lil Valentine out for the season. Oregon is the 14th-best defense against running backs in FBS, but that volume has carried him to 12.4 points a game over his last three. At $5.2M, he is projected for about 12.

Injuries and timeshares

Oregon's Dante Moore, Evan Stewart and Jeremiah McClellan are all out. Oregon Ducks On SI reported that Moore has practiced and taken part in pregame warmups for the past two weeks, but there is no timeline for his return. CBS Sports reported that Dan Lanning hasn't confirmed his starting QB against Illinois. Illinois's Katin Houser is out with a hand injury, and Ca'Lil Valentine is out for the season. In Oregon's backfield, Davison has 43 percent of the carries over the last three games and Hill has 41 percent.

TL;DR

Start Moore and Dixon on volume, take Laughery as the value, and treat Davison as a risky play because of Oregon's backfield split.