North Texas at Navy Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 24, 2026

The story

North Texas has won three straight and sits 2-0 in the American, with an offense averaging 42.2 points a game this season. Navy is 2-4 and coming off a 38-34 loss at UTSA on Oct. 17. For fantasy, this is a game with stars on both sides: the North Texas backfield and passing game, plus a Navy QB who has become the engine of his offense.

The angle

This sets up as a high-scoring game expected to stay close, which leaves room for big outings. Both defenses are tougher against the run than the pass. North Texas has the 16th-worst pass defense in FBS, and Navy's pass defense sits in the bottom 25 percent of FBS while allowing 248 passing yards a game. That points the softer path toward the receivers, though the two lead runners carry enough volume to push through.

Start 'em

Jahiem White has been the centerpiece of North Texas's offense all season, averaging 29.3 points a game this season and 31.8 over his last three games, with a season high of 42. His workload is climbing: 18.3 carries a game over his last three games, up from 14 before that, which works out to 50 percent of the team's carries in that stretch. Navy is an above-average defense against running backs, so this may not be his biggest week. But a lead back with half the carries in a game built for scoring has a floor few players can match. Start him, because his volume carries him past a tougher matchup.

Justin Stevenson (North Texas) has turned into North Texas quarterback Tayven Jackson's favorite target, with 6.3 catches a game over his last three games, up from 4.7 a game before that. That is 25 percent of North Texas's catches over the last three games, and Jackson has thrown for 317 yards a game in that span. Navy is a below-average defense against wide receivers, in the bottom 25 percent of FBS, and that is exactly where this offense should attack. Stevenson has averaged 18.1 points a game this season and 24.4 over his last three games, with a high of 33.2. Kyle Koch (North Texas) has a role on the outside too, but Stevenson's share is the one rising. He's a ceiling play, since a growing role against a soft secondary is the recipe for a spike week.

Jackson Gutierrez has taken over Navy's ground game, carrying 24.7 times a game over his last three games, up from 16.3 before that. That is 52 percent of Navy's carries in that stretch, and he has run for 135 yards a game across those three games. He has averaged 27.3 points a game this season and 34 over his last three games, with a season high of 46. North Texas is the 17th-worst defense against quarterbacks in FBS, and its run defense rates below average, sitting in the bottom 40 percent of FBS. At $6.5M, he gives you this kind of workload at a bargain. Treat him as a ceiling play, because a QB carrying this much of the offense against a soft defense can post a monster line.

Value

Max Reese (North Texas) is catching more passes, averaging 3.7 catches a game over his last three games, up from two a game before that, and 14.8 points a game in that span. Navy is the 29th-worst defense against tight ends in FBS, a clear soft spot for a tight end seeing more of the ball. At $6.5M he is projected for about 10, and that recent form gives him room to clear it.

TL;DR

Start White for his volume, chase ceilings with Stevenson and Gutierrez, and take Reese as the value against Navy's soft spot at tight end.