New Mexico State at Sam Houston Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 21, 2026

The story

Sam Houston is 1-5 and has lost three straight, most recently 16-3 at home to Western Kentucky on Oct. 14. New Mexico State is 2-4 and coming off a road loss at Florida International on Oct. 7. For fantasy, the interest sits almost entirely with the Aggies, whose backfield and tight end have the clearest roles in this game.

The angle

This sets up as a lower-scoring game, so volume matters more than big plays. Sam Houston is tougher against the pass than the run. It has the 17th-worst run defense in FBS on a per-carry basis, allowing 200 rushing yards a game, and the 19th-worst defense against running backs. Its above-average defense against receivers pushes New Mexico State toward the ground game and its tight end.

Start 'em

James Jones has carried New Mexico State's backfield, with 17.5 carries and 122 rushing yards a game over his last two games, more than half of the team's carries. He has played in all six of the Aggies' games and has been a steady producer, averaging 16.2 points a game this season and 16 over his last three, with a season high of 26.9. Sam Houston has the 19th-worst defense against running backs, so the one funnel in this game runs straight to him. Treat him as a ceiling play, because a heavy workload against a soft run defense gives him room for a big day.

Josiah Thomas (New Mexico State) has grown into a bigger part of the passing game. He has caught 3.3 passes a game over his last three games, up from 1.7 a game before that. That works out to about 20 percent of the team's catches, the largest share on a spread-out receiving corps. He has averaged 8.7 points over his last three games, against 5.9 for the season, with a high of 14. Sam Houston is about average against tight ends, and that is a fair matchup for a rising role while the receivers face a tougher defense. Start him, since his catches keep climbing in a spot he can handle.

Sit 'em

Alton McCaskill has lost ground in Sam Houston's backfield. His share fell to 22 percent of the team's carries over his last three games, down from 37 percent earlier, and his scoring fell with it. MJ Dowdy (Sam Houston) now has 29 percent of the carries over that span, so McCaskill is part of a committee he does not lead. New Mexico State's run defense is below average, which is the upside, but the shrinking workload outweighs it. Fade him for now, because his slice of the carries has been getting smaller.

Injuries and timeshares

Sam Houston's Jerrian Parker and Max Whisner are both questionable. If Whisner sits, Matt Smith would likely pick up the tight end work, and he has caught 7 percent of the team's catches over his last three games. The Bearkats' backfield is also a committee, with Dowdy and McCaskill splitting the carries and Landan Brown mixing in.

TL;DR

Play Jones as the ceiling option against a soft run defense, start Thomas on his rising catches, and leave Sam Houston's crowded backfield alone.