NC State at Stanford Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 23, 2026

The story

NC State arrives at 3-3 after winning two straight and then losing to Wake Forest on Oct. 10. Stanford is 3-4, lost back-to-back road games at Wake Forest and Notre Dame, then beat Elon 34-7 on Oct. 17. For fantasy, the Wolfpack's passing game and Stanford's lead back are where this ACC game gets interesting.

The angle

A 55.5-point total points to plenty of scoring, with NC State at an implied 31 points and Stanford at an implied 24.5. Stanford's defense is the main reason. It ranks as the sixth-worst scoring defense in FBS at 36.6 points allowed a game, the 21st-worst pass defense and the seventh-worst run defense. NC State spreads its catches around, so its quarterback is the cleanest way into that. On the other side, Stanford funnels its offense through one back.

Start 'em

CJ Bailey is NC State's starting QB. He has thrown for 289 yards a game over his last three games and added about seven carries a game on top of that. He has averaged 17.8 points this season and 19.4 over his last three, with a season high of 23.8, so his range is tight and trending up. Stanford is the 20th-worst defense against quarterbacks in FBS and allows 255 passing yards a game. He gets a start because steady volume meets a defense that has given way all season.

Preston Douglas has caught exactly five passes in each of NC State's last three games, up from three a game before that. That works out to 19 percent of the team's catches in a receiving corps that spreads the ball out. He has averaged 9.8 points this season and 10.5 over his last three games, topping out at 13.8. Stanford is the 27th-worst defense against tight ends in FBS. Start him, because his catch total has become one of the most reliable in this game.

Micah Ford, listed Probable, is Stanford's lead back with 55 percent of the carries over the last three games. He has averaged 16 carries and three catches a game over that span. He has averaged 18.5 points this season and 22.4 over his last three. His season high is 52.1, set against Elon on Oct. 17, when his four rushing touchdowns tied Stanford's single-game record, according to Stanford Athletics. NC State's defense against running backs is below average, in the bottom 30 percent of FBS. Ford is a ceiling play because a workload this heavy against a soft front can produce another huge day.

Risky plays

Keenan Jackson has the biggest game on NC State's roster this season, a 37.2-point outing, and has averaged 16.2 points a game. His role has narrowed, though. He has 15 percent of the team's catches over his last three games, down from 25 percent earlier in the season, and he has averaged 13.6 points over that stretch. Stanford is the 25th-worst defense against wide receivers in FBS, which keeps his upside alive. He's risky because his share of the passing game is shrinking even with a soft defense in front of him.

Value

Davion Gause (NC State) has seen 13.7 carries a game over his last three games, up from six a game before that. He has played in five of NC State's six games and has averaged 10.1 points over his last three. Stanford is the sixth-worst defense against running backs in FBS, and at $4.8M he is projected for about 12.

Davis Warren (Stanford) is a cheaper way into this game at quarterback. He has thrown for 186 yards a game over his last three games, and NC State is the 27th-worst defense against quarterbacks in FBS. At $5.1M, he is projected for about 14.

TL;DR

Start Bailey and Douglas, chase Ford's ceiling, grab Gause and Warren as values, and treat Jackson as a risky receiver.