Iowa at Minnesota Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 24, 2026

The story

Iowa arrives at 5-1 and ranked 15th, having bounced back from a home loss to Ohio State with a 41-24 win at Washington on Oct. 9. Minnesota sits at 4-2 after winning at Washington and beating Michigan, then losing badly at Purdue on Oct. 10. Both teams are 2-1 in the Big Ten. For fantasy, this is a running back game first, with one cheap QB worth a look.

The angle

This sets up as a lower-scoring game, so steady volume counts for more than big plays. Iowa has the second-best run defense in FBS on a per-carry basis, which makes the passing game Minnesota's softer route. Minnesota's run defense is below average, in the bottom 40 percent of FBS per carry, while its pass defense is above average. That points Iowa toward the ground and toward its workhorse back.

Start 'em

Kamari Moulton has taken over Iowa's backfield, with 60 percent of the carries over the last three games and 16.7 carries a game in that span, up from 13 a game before that. Iowa Hawkeyes On SI reported that in his fourth season he is finally getting the bulk of the carries. The Associated Press noted his career-high 208 rushing yards on 26 carries at Washington. He has played in five of Iowa's six games, averaging 14.7 points a game this season and 14.3 over his last three, with a 33.6-point high. Minnesota is about average against running backs and below average against the run per carry, and Iowa's likely run-first plan feeds him. He's a safe floor because the carries are his and the matchup doesn't fight back.

Darius Taylor faces the toughest possible test in Iowa, the second-best defense against running backs in FBS, but his workload is rising. He has 14.7 carries a game over his last three games, up from 10 a game before that, plus 4.7 catches a game in that span. That receiving work matters against a defense this stingy on the ground. He has played in five of Minnesota's six games, averaging 15.8 points a game this season and 15.4 over his last three. TJ Thomas (Minnesota) has 35 percent of the carries to Taylor's 52 percent over the last three games, and it is Taylor's share that keeps climbing. Start him: the catches protect his floor even if Iowa shuts down the runs.

Noah Jennings has been a steady producer in all six of Minnesota's games, averaging 12.4 points a game this season and 10.5 over his last three, with an 18.2-point high. He and Javon Tracy (Minnesota) split the passing work, with Tracy at 25 percent and Jennings at 23 percent of the team's catches over the last three games. Iowa is about average against receivers, and with Iowa's run defense this strong, Minnesota's passing game looks like its path to points. At $4.8M, Jennings costs less than Tracy for nearly the same share. He's a start, since the volume is there and the price makes it easy.

Value

Drake Lindsey has thrown every one of Minnesota's passes over the last three games, averaging 196 passing yards a game in that span. Iowa is about average against quarterbacks, and its elite run defense should push Minnesota to the air. He has averaged 11.9 points over his last three games, and at $5.4M he is projected for about 12, a solid return for a mid-range price.

TL;DR

Lean on Moulton's carries, trust Taylor's growing workload despite the tough matchup, take Jennings at his price, and use Lindsey as the value QB.