Georgia State at Arkansas State Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 24, 2026

The story

Georgia State arrives in Jonesboro at 4-2 after a rough trip, having lost 49-22 at James Madison on Oct. 17, which snapped a run of lopsided home wins. Arkansas State sits at 3-4 but bounced back with a road win at Southern Miss on Oct. 17. For fantasy, this Sun Belt meeting offers two starting QBs facing generous defenses and a Georgia State backfield with an inviting matchup.

The angle

This sets up as a game expected to have plenty of scoring and expected to be close, the kind of environment that leaves room for ceilings on both sides. Arkansas State's defense is the bigger target: it is the 24th-worst pass defense in FBS on a per-play basis and soft against quarterbacks and running backs alike. Both backfields are committees and both receiving groups spread the ball around, so the quarterbacks are the surest way into the scoring.

Start 'em

Cameran Brown has been a steady producer as Georgia State's starting QB, averaging 19.7 points a game this season and 21.2 over his last three games. He has thrown for 189 yards a game over that stretch and added 30 rushing yards a game, and his season high of 35.4 shows how far he can climb. Arkansas State is the 28th-worst defense against quarterbacks in FBS. In a game that should stay close and keep both offenses throwing, Brown is a ceiling play, because a soft pass defense gives his big-game range a real path.

Lanear McCrary Jr. (Georgia State) comes with a caution flag. His share fell to 24 percent of Georgia State's carries over his last two games, down from 33 percent, and his scoring dipped along with it. Even so, the matchup is too good to pass up. Arkansas State is the 22nd-worst defense against running backs in FBS and the 28th-worst run defense, giving up 194 rushing yards a game. McCrary has averaged 11.4 points this season and 10.7 over his last three games, with a season high of 19. Dennis Murray Jr., who has played in four of Georgia State's six games, has averaged 7.6 over his last three, so McCrary is the back to own from this group. Start McCrary, since a defense this generous on the ground can make up for a smaller slice of the carries.

Trey Owens is Arkansas State's starting QB, and his role has grown on the ground. He has carried 10.3 times a game over his last three games, up from 5.5 before that, while throwing for 265 yards a game. He has averaged 16.4 points this season and 19.5 over his last three, and his season high of 35.5 came in the 56-49 loss to South Alabama on Oct. 8, when he threw for 418 yards. The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reported that passing total was a career high. Georgia State is below average against quarterbacks, in the bottom 40 percent of FBS, and a close, high-scoring game should keep him busy. Owens is a safe floor, because his rushing volume adds a dependable layer to his passing production.

Value

Solomon Baggett has played in six of Arkansas State's seven games and has carried 10.3 times a game over his last three, averaging 10.5 points over that span as part of the backfield rotation. He gets a soft matchup: Georgia State is the 26th-worst defense against running backs in FBS and the 25th-worst run defense. At $5.1M and projected for about 8, he has a clear path to outperform his price.

TL;DR

Lean on both QBs, with Brown the ceiling and Owens the floor, start McCrary in a soft spot, and grab Baggett as the value.