California at SMU Breakdown: Week 8, Oct. 24, 2026

The story

SMU is 5-1, ranked 23rd in the AP poll and has won three straight, most recently beating Virginia at home on Oct. 17. California is 3-4 and coming off a 41-7 home loss to Wake Forest the same day. For fantasy, the backfields on both sides are where the confident starts are, with SMU's passing game close behind.

The angle

A 55.5-point total points to plenty of scoring, but the split is lopsided: SMU carries an implied 37.5 points to California's 18. Both defenses are tougher on the pass than the run, and California's is the 21st-worst run defense in FBS on a per-carry basis. If SMU builds a lead, it is likely to lean on the run late, which favors its lead back.

Start 'em

Ashten Emory has taken over California's backfield, with 61 percent of the carries over the last three games and 14.3 carries a game in that span, up from four a game before it. His production has followed. He has averaged 15.4 points over his last three games against 9 for the season, peaking at 23.6 in the 25-20 win over Virginia Tech on Oct. 10. SMU is about average against running backs, so the matchup does not stand in the way. He's a start, because that kind of carry volume travels.

Kendrick Raphael is SMU's lead back, with 60 percent of the carries over the last three games and 20 carries a game, up from 13 earlier. He has averaged 18.2 points this season and 16.3 over his last three, and his 40.8-point high shows how far he can climb. California is the 23rd-worst defense in FBS against running backs, and a late-game lean on the run would add to his workload. He's a ceiling play, with a growing workload aimed at a soft run defense.

Kevin Jennings is SMU's starting QB, throwing for 290 yards a game over his last three games while adding 6.3 carries a game. He has been a steady producer, averaging 24.6 points this season and 25 over his last three, with a high of 34.9. California is about average against quarterbacks, allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt on its opponent-adjusted grade. He has scored at least 14 in four of his last five games. He's a safe floor, since both his passing and rushing volume hold up in a neutral matchup.

Randy Pittman has caught three passes in each of SMU's last three games, about 12 percent of the team's catches, a role that has barely moved all season. He has averaged 10.1 points this season and 9.3 over his last three, with a high of 18.5. California is below average against tight ends, in the bottom 40 percent of FBS. Theo Melin Ohrstrom (SMU) shares the position, but his 8 points a game over the last three trail Pittman's output. Pittman's a start on the strength of his steady, repeatable usage.

Value

Taimane Purcell has played in five of California's seven games, and his recent usage has ticked up: 3.3 catches a game over his last three, up from 1.5 before that. He has averaged 10.4 points in that span, well above his 5.2 for the season. SMU is above average against tight ends, but at $4.7M the rising usage gives him room to beat his price.

Yamir Knight is SMU's top target, with 25 percent of the team's catches and 6.3 catches a game over his last three games. He has averaged 15.3 points in that stretch and 14 this season. California is about average against receivers, and at $6.2M he is projected for about 14.

Injuries and timeshares

California's Ian Strong is listed Questionable. If he sits, Chase Hendricks stands to gain, and he has already caught 23 percent of the team's passes over the last three games. California's Jordan King, Cooper Perry and Mark Hamper are also Questionable, and Cal On SI reported that Perry will be a game-time decision. Adam Mohammed and Carter Vargas are Out, and Cal On SI reported that Mohammed will not play. That settles the backfield split, in which Ashten Emory held 61 percent of the carries to Mohammed's 57 percent. SMU's Dramekco Green is Out.

TL;DR

Start Kendrick Raphael and Kevin Jennings with confidence, trust Ashten Emory's carries and Randy Pittman's steady role, and take Taimane Purcell and Yamir Knight as values.